Dovish
1. Fed Governor Bowman: It's too early to judge the impact of the war on inflation; price shocks can be temporarily ignored. The longer oil prices continue to rise, the more likely we are to consider adjusting our risk assessment strategy. (Permanent voting member during term)
Neutral
1. Fed Governor Powell: We are currently at the high end of the neutral interest rate range or a slightly restrictive level. The labor market is showing increasing signs of stabilization, while inflation is somewhat unruly, so maintaining the status quo may be appropriate. (Permanent voting member during term)
2. Fed's Williams: There are strong reasons to believe that inflation has peaked and will gradually decline in the coming quarters; no particular view on the policy direction. (Permanent voting member during term)
3. Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson: Current monetary policy is well-positioned to continue supporting the labor market while allowing inflation to return to the 2% target. (Permanent voting member during term)
4. Fed's Barr: We are trying to determine how the energy shock will affect inflation; it is unclear whether artificial intelligence will reduce or exacerbate income and wealth inequality. (Permanent voting member during term)
5. Fed Governor Waller: I need to see data consistently declining for several consecutive months to be confident that inflation is moving in the right direction. If core CPI continues to "feverish," a rate hike will be needed in the short term. (Permanent voting member during term)
6. Fed President Paulson: The market has accepted the scenario of interest rates remaining unchanged for an extended period, and it has also accepted the scenario of potentially needing rate hikes, which is healthy; we are not seeing structural changes in inflation, only a series of shocks. (2026 voting member)
7. Fed President Daly: There is a scenario where we must deal with inflation that is more stubborn than expected; there is also a scenario where economic growth cannot be sustained, or investment slows down. (2027 voting member)
Hawks
1. Fed Chairman Warsh: Recent inflation data does not perfectly reflect the underlying inflation situation, and I am not satisfied with any inflation indicator. We will review tools including the balance sheet and interest rates to determine whether adjustments are needed to address inflation. (Permanent voting member during term)
2. Fed Governor Cook: The prudent approach is to give it more time to observe how inflation evolves. 3. Federal Reserve's Kashkari: Expects one rate hike in 2026 and no change in 2027. He had previously projected a rate cut before the end of the year in March. (2026 voting member)
4. Federal Reserve's Hamak: For the first time, businesses have told me they believe the Fed needs to take measures to curb inflation; it's also the first time consumers have expressed growing despair about not making ends meet. (2026 voting member)
5. Federal Reserve's Logan: The Fed should raise interest rates to address high inflation. While data suggests a slowdown in price increases, it's not enough to convince me inflation is back on target. (2026 voting member)
6. Federal Reserve's Barkin: Inflation remains significantly off target, restrictive policies are still necessary, and inflation may persist more strongly than expected. (2027 voting member)
7. Federal Reserve's Goolsby: June CPI data was good, but I don't want to overreact to a single month's data. 8. Fed's Schmid: Recent inflation data is encouraging, but it's too early to draw conclusions. I'm not used to assuming that inflation shocks are likely temporary. (2028 voting member)
9. Fed's Mussalim: Interest rates appear to be at or below the long-term neutral level. I would be concerned if we don't see inflation fall back in the next one or two quarters. (2028 voting member)
10. Fed's Collins: While this isn't the most likely scenario, it's conceivable that some policy tightening would be needed to ensure inflation returns to 2% in a timely and sustained manner. (2028 voting member)
