The US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for July came in at 90.8, lower than the expected 92.3 and slightly down from the previous reading of 91.2. While the decline was small and cannot yet be considered a sudden deterioration in consumption, the index's prolonged presence in the low range indicates that high prices, interest rates, and employment uncertainty continue to weigh on consumer sentiment.
In the June report, consumers' assessment of current business and employment conditions had fallen to 116.4, with the proportion of respondents reporting difficulty finding work rising to its highest level since January 2021. Although the future expectations index rebounded to 74.4, it remains below 80, typically considered a warning sign of economic recession.
Therefore, the July data is more of a continuation of weakness than a new precipitous decline. For the market, the data is slightly bearish for the dollar and yields and slightly bullish for easing expectations. However, given the limited deviation from expectations, policy decisions still await further confirmation from GDP, PCE, and employment data.
