The Fed will announce its July rate decision at 02:00, with the chair's press
conference at 02:30. Markets put roughly a 30% chance on a hike versus 70% on a
hold and are pricing a modest bias toward tightening. Pricing implies the
possibility of one-to-three dissents in favor of a hike, and the chair is
expected to strongly reiterate a zero-tolerance stance on inflation overshoots.
Elevated US–Iran tensions are cited as upside inflation risk, while the Fed's
reduced forward guidance increases uncertainty around the path of policy.
