Major sell-side houses expect two hawkish dissenting votes at the Fed
meeting—most often identified as Hamak and Logan—while the prospect of
additional opposing votes remain unresolved. TD Securities, JPMorgan and others
flag Hamak and Logan as likely dissenters; JPMorgan and Citi say Kashkari could
also dissent. UBS and BofA expect the FOMC to hold rates, with UBS projecting
8–10 votes for a hold if no hike; Danske and several banks see 2–4 members
favoring a hike but not enough to change policy. Brown Brothers Harriman and
Prudential model a 10–2 split (Hamak, Logan); Cook joining would make it 9–3.
Firms warn that more than two hawkish dissents would be interpreted as a
stronger signal for a September hike. Recent hawkish signals: Kashkari expects
one hike in 2026 and steady rates in 2027; Logan and Hamak say rates should rise
to rein in elevated inflation; Cook says he’s ready to act if disinflation does
not materialize. Market-implied probabilities: Kalshi shows Hamak and Logan each
~58% to dissent; Polymarket prices two dissents at 40%, one dissent at 21% and
three dissents at 13%.
