Policy statement: market pricing largely expects a hold; an unexpected hike
remains the primary risk. Watch for more hawkish phrasing (eg, adding language
about acting if necessary) and for how the committee frames inflation vs recent
disinflation and upside risks. Monitor whether the expected pair of hawkish
votes materialize and whether the number of dissents exceeds two — a key signal
for September. Press conference: whether the chair sticks to a terse
communication style and downplays forward guidance, how recent disinflation is
characterized and whether anti-inflation priority is reaffirmed, and how
officials judge Middle East spillovers for future inflation and the policy path.
If a surprise hike occurs, note whether it is presented as a one‑off or the
start of renewed tightening. Any hawkish shift in wording could reprice
September hike odds and move the dollar, USTs and gold.
