Fed Chair KEVIN WARSH said he references a broader set of inflation indicators
than PCE alone, though PCE remains the Fed's reference metric and will continue
to be used. June core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due Thursday
20:30 Beijing time. Committee members typically do not wait for the public
print; they rely on staff estimates based on available information, and FOMC
deliberations are driven by those internal analyses. Markets expect core PCE YoY
3.30% (prev. 3.40%). A print below expectations would lessen the urgency for
additional rate hikes; an upside surprise would reinforce expectations for
further tightening.
