The quarterly earnings reports released after Wednesday's market close presented a familiar pattern: Microsoft (MSFT.O) reported 18% revenue growth, a backlog of $678 billion, and Azure revenue surpassing the $100 billion mark; Meta (META.O) reported 28% revenue growth. However, both companies face the problem of aggressive investment. According to Visible Alpha, Microsoft's capital expenditure growth has been high for three consecutive years, averaging approximately 62% between 2024 and 2026, far exceeding Azure's revenue growth of approximately 37%; Meta's free cash flow declined by 91% in the second quarter due to a surge in data center spending. This contrasts sharply with the major chipmakers. Analysts predict that the total capital expenditure of the four major cloud vendors (Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon) will reach approximately $698 billion in 2026, almost exactly equal to the expected free cash flow of the four major chip giants (Nvidia, SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron). The problem for large tech companies is not demand, but spending. Investors will remain cautious until Microsoft can demonstrate that Azure revenue growth continues to outpace capital expenditure, and until Meta can prove that AI is improving profit margins and free cash flow. The cash generated by AI is flowing steadily to chip manufacturers, while the flow back to large tech companies remains congested.
