Pulaisi chief U.S. economist Blerina Uruci said in a note that, absent a large
oil-price rise and assuming inflation falls, the Fed could leave rates unchanged
at the September meeting. She said the number of dissents at Wednesday’s FOMC
meeting and oil-price uncertainty have left markets pricing roughly a 50/50
chance for September. Markets will continue to press the Fed and may not relent
until inflation data forces action, though she maintains a view that the Fed
will hold rates. June core CPI did not affect the Fed’s decision; she added that
Wosh is monitoring the trend and, if it persists, it could work in his favor in
a few months.
