JP Morgan expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 bps in December 2026; it had previous forecast rates would remain unchanged this year.

1. Claiming control of the Strait of Hormuz – Trump: Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz. We control the Strait of Hormuz. Only ships that we want to pass through can pass through. 2. Hoping Iran will formally commit to not possessing nuclear weapons – Trump: Iran understands they will never have nuclear weapons. Iran has essentially agreed not to have nuclear weapons. Iran needs to formally commit to not possessing nuclear weapons. 3. Claiming US-Iran negotiations are “progressing well,” threatening strikes if no agreement is reached —Trump stated that the US has had good negotiations with Iran, although he reiterated that if no agreement is reached with Iran, he will strike “Gazelle Hill,” as well as bridges and power plants. He hopes to avoid attacking Iranian bridges and power plants if possible. 4. Claiming indifference to the USMCA trade agreement —Trump stated that renewing trade agreements with Mexico and Canada is more important to these countries than to the US. When asked if he would renew the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), Trump said, "I don't care; it's not important to us." 5. Meeting with Zelensky, Agreeing to Provide Patriot Missile Licenses to Ukraine —Trump held a closed-door meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House on the morning of the 28th. Zelensky stated after the meeting that Trump had agreed to provide Ukraine with Patriot missile licenses and also discussed issues such as restarting the diplomatic process to end the Ukraine crisis. 6. Meeting with Netanyahu, Focusing on the Iranian Nuclear Issue —Trump met with visiting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House, with the Iranian nuclear issue being a central topic. Both sides reaffirmed their shared commitment to "preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons" after the meeting. 7. Pledge to End the War in Iran—Trump: Iran is extremely eager for an agreement. We will get Iran to sign the agreement. We will end this war.

China stocks rebounded to close higher: Shanghai Composite +0.40%, Shenzhen Composite +1.10%, ChiNext +1.55%; Beijing Stock Exchange 50 +0.85%, STAR 50 -0.87%. Turnover across Shanghai and Shenzhen was CNY2.3t, up CNY270.8b from the prior session; more than 4,100 stocks advanced. Innovative-drug names continued to run. C Changxin jumped 12.6% to CNY52.95 on turnover near CNY45.0b. Securities and power sectors led gains—Hualin Securities and Jingneng Power hit daily limit-ups (Guiguan Power earlier also limit-up). Gaming stocks outperformed, with Century Huatong +9.5% and Giant Network earlier at limit-up. Lithography-equipment shares tumbled over 10% (Maolai Optical, Lanying Equipment, Xinlai Materials among the biggest decliners). Brain–computer interface plays weakened, with Innovation Medical hitting the down limit. Memory-chip names fell for a second day—Weidao Nano slid over 10%, with Tongfu Microelectronics and peers following lower.