Most houses expect the Bank of England to hold policy at 3.75% at the meeting.
ING and several forecasters see no rate moves through the year, with inflation
drifting toward about 3% in H2–early next year. BNY Mellon and others expect no
change and at most two dissenters; some models predict a 7-2 hold. Berenberg and
others say the BoE will keep rates at 3.75% but judge future cuts more likely
than further hikes. BofA expects a hold but notes the committee may leave the
door open to future tightening and will flag its assessment of QT. Governor
Bailey is expected to stress slowing wage growth. Reuters’ survey and some banks
warn the US–Iran conflict remains an upside inflation risk. Commerzbank says if
that conflict ends by end-September and labor market weakness persists, cuts
become more likely. Oxford Economics expects officials to highlight upside
inflation risk and signal readiness to raise rates if second‑round effects
appear. NIESR projects no policy change through end‑2027. Market takeaways: hold
at 3.75% is priced, but monitor vote split, inflation guidance, QT wording, wage
dynamics and geopolitically driven inflation risk.
