The Bank of England's policy path has been pushed towards a conditional divergence: in June, there were 7 votes in favor of keeping interest rates unchanged and 2 votes in favor of raising rates, but in July the vote became 6 to 3, indicating that the energy shock and the risk of second-round inflation are still increasing the presence of the rate-raising camp. The majority also clarified the conditions for a policy shift: if the impact of the war quickly subsides and wages do not spread with energy prices, discussions on rate cuts can still resume.
