Bank of England's policy path has moved to a conditional split: the committee
vote shifted from 7-2 to hold vs. hike in June to 6-3 in July, signaling rising
weight of the energy shock and second‑round inflation risks among hawks. The
majority said a policy shift is conditional—if the war shock fades quickly and
wages do not transmit energy price rises, discussion of rate cuts can be
reopened.
