Germany's July 2026 headline inflation is forecast at 2.8% YoY, with core
inflation excluding food and energy seen at 2.4% YoY. Energy prices are
projected to rise 8.3% YoY, with the pace accelerating sharply from the prior
month. Analyst Giuseppe Dellamotta said core disinflation is positive for the
ECB; if euro-area CPI follows a similar path, the likelihood of a September ECB
rate hike could fall. Markets will watch developments in the Middle East — any
de‑escalation would materially reduce the urgency for further ECB tightening.
