Major banks and a Reuters survey expect the BOJ to hold policy at this meeting,
with October the earliest likely window for a rate increase. JPMorgan and others
cite slowing inflation and weak wages as reasons to pause; Citi says a clear
October roadmap from Governor Ueda would be a strong hawkish signal but is
unlikely in the near term. Several banks warn that insufficiently hawkish
messaging could push USD/JPY toward 165, keeping intervention risk elevated,
while some firms (Meiji Yasuda) still see scope for an accelerated hiking pace
to counter inflation and yen selling. Market takeaway: a sustained yen rebound
likely requires tightening from both the BOJ and the Fed; any October guidance
or signs of faster tightening would be material for rates, FX and intervention
probability.
