Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill said the Iran conflict could keep
energy and commodity prices highly volatile through 2027, increasing the risk
that inflation remains elevated and forcing policymakers to act. He said the
conflict’s evolution and how it transmits to the UK is "extremely uncertain" and
the BoE cannot judge the duration or scale of the impact; erratic recent US‑Iran
talks illustrate that uncertainty. Pill warned hopes earlier in the year that
the outlook would clarify by mid‑year have not materialised, and large swings in
energy and commodity prices may persist through year‑end and into next year.
Pill is among the MPC’s most hawkish members and was one of three to vote to
raise rates this week.
