Hamas recently issued a statement saying that the organization agreed to include the transfer of heavy weapons in the Gaza ceasefire agreement, but this is conditional on Israel ceasing all forms of aggression and withdrawing its troops from the Gaza Strip. Senior Israeli officials stated that despite various reports of "diplomatic progress in the Gaza Strip," Israel will not withdraw its troops from its existing positions in Gaza until Israel considers Hamas to have "truly disarmed."
Daria Shaindlin, a US-Israel polling expert and consultant, said that with only months until the Israeli election, Prime Minister Netanyahu is taking a very high gamble—winning the election is crucial to avoiding imprisonment if convicted of corruption. Currently, the opposition is leading in several polls and is expected to form a government. Shaindlin believes that Netanyahu's considerations are not related to public trauma but purely political: "His primary—even sole—concern is the opinion of his coalition partners." Shaindlin stated that withdrawing troops from Gaza is impossible, and any strategy to stabilize the alliance must proceed without further alienating the increasingly dissatisfied US allies. Netanyahu would not want to be seen by Trump as an obstacle to the implementation of the agreement, so he may arrange for some symbolic movements of the Israeli army within Gaza, such as withdrawing to the old lines stipulated in the October 2025 ceasefire agreement—although this agreement has been repeatedly ignored by Israel, which has killed more than 1,200 Palestinians and continued to expand its controlled territory since the ceasefire.
Dov Waxman, a professor of Israeli studies at UCLA, points out that Netanyahu's efforts to form a government are already difficult, and agreeing to a troop withdrawal would only exacerbate the situation. He was previously able to evade US demands and maintain the unity of the far-right alliance by relying on Hamas's inability to be completely defeated. Now he remains silent on the agreement, but will eventually have to make a statement. Waxman believes that criticizing the agreement would anger Trump—who has not yet endorsed him in the election—but Netanyahu is hoping for a pre-election "gift" from Trump, whether it be a call for amnesty or the normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations. Therefore, he must maintain a relationship with Trump.
Goren, founder of the Mitvim Institute, a regional foreign policy research institute in Israel, said that Netanyahu is adept at handling these kinds of situations. He will ensure that Trump gets the statements, the signing ceremony, and all the formalities, but he may not withdraw troops from Gaza. Goren added that withdrawal is not just a matter of public opinion, "but also goes against his entire philosophy and worldview—that Israel must exist outside the borders to prevent any ill intentions from turning into action. On the contrary, I think he is more likely to escalate the situation than discuss withdrawal before the election."
