Hamas has said it will include heavy-weapons handover in a Gaza ceasefire
framework, but conditions the concession on Israel halting all aggression and
withdrawing forces from the enclave. Israeli senior officials say they will not
pull back from current Gaza positions until Hamas is “truly disarmed.” With an
Israeli election months away and opposition polling ahead, Prime Minister
Netanyahu faces strong political incentives to avoid a withdrawal that could
fracture his coalition or antagonize key partners. Analysts and advisers say
Netanyahu is likely to prefer symbolic intra-Gaza troop movements—such as
repositioning to the old front lines referenced in the October 2025 ceasefire
text—rather than a full withdrawal, both to preserve ties with Trump and to keep
coalition unity. Observers note the prior ceasefire was widely breached by
Israeli operations, which reportedly resulted in more than 1,200 Palestinians
fatalities and continued expansion of Israeli control areas. The net policy
signal: a full Israeli pullback from Gaza appears unlikely in the near term;
expect continued negotiation standoffs and elevated risk of military continuity
or escalation pending political calculations.
