China International Capital Co (CICC) says global AI-related chains have sold
off sharply since mid‑late June, with Korea’s hardest hit where high leverage,
crowding and retail exposure amplified the decline. Drivers include amplified
positioning risk, macro shocks (re‑pricing of Fed rate hikes and renewed Strait
of Hormuz disruption pushing oil), and renewed froth concerns (eg. cloud compute
rentals, falling token spend). CICC notes the tech run-up before the 2000 crash
saw at least four large, prolonged pullbacks triggered by similar
factors—industry hiccups, macro headwinds and overheated sentiment—and only
rebounded once those three pressures eased. By analogy, CICC says market
stabilization or a fresh leg higher now requires: substantial digestion of
crowding/leverage; relief or resolution of Fed tightening expectations (watch
the July FOMC); and new earnings/industry catalysts during the July–August
reporting season.
