Dongwu Securities says U.S. consumer credit delinquency rates have risen since
the pandemic, with auto-loan and credit-card delinquencies near historic highs.
The firm attributes much of the headline rise to technical factors — changes in
statistical coverage and credit-rating migration — which amplify measured
delinquency severity; alternative metrics such as new-delinquency (new-roll)
rates do not show a broad, sustained deterioration in U.S. household credit.
Still, Dongwu warns of persistent structural risk concentrated in subprime
borrowers and lower-income households, leaving the lower end of a K-shaped
recovery as a continuing vulnerability until full economic rebound.
