CITIC Securities says in 2Q26 leading North American cloud vendors’ capital
Spending remains elevated. Combined 2026 capex guidance from four major North
American cloud providers is about $720–745 billion, signaling continued AI
infrastructure expansion. The firm views the AI compute supply chain as still
healthy but notes recent market adjustments that may have produced an oversell.
Key near-term monitor points: ARR of large models—particularly Coding-use-case
ARR—since recent price cuts by major models in North America could, if ARR
growth stalls, weigh on expectations for future compute demand; rollout and
adoption of large models beyond Coding scenarios; the price path across the
compute-cost/inflation chain; and financing conditions and market risk appetite
across AI-industry segments. Given heavy Q2 industry exposures and recent market
weakness, CITIC recommends watching low-valuation, high-dividend names.
