Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic
and International Studies, said repeated instances in which the Trump
administration escalated threats but then held fire have led Iran to conclude it
holds the upper hand in the confrontation. She identified a recurring
pattern—military escalation, announced but unrealized diplomatic breakthroughs,
then a return to threats—that reinforces Tehran’s perception. Yacoubian added
the latest U.S. strike was likely delayed after Gulf allies warned further
escalation could prompt Iran to target regional infrastructure and energy
assets.
