Wolfgang Pustätter, a former Austrian defense attaché and current security policy and defense analyst, said it was too early to draw conclusions, although an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz might be reached today or Thursday.
Pustätter stated that the parties involved in the mediation are currently “working to clarify some key clauses in a very weak memorandum of understanding, which is precisely what has led to the renewed violence.”
He added that if the agreement between Iran and Oman confirms that there will be no passage fees, but only fees for maritime services, the US would likely accept it. However, if Iran attempts to impose high passage fees or large sums, which clearly violate the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the US will certainly refuse.
He said, “This is not only because of the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz, but more importantly, it could set a precedent for other strategic maritime chokepoints.”
Pustätter also explained the inconsistencies in Trump’s statements, believing this to be part of the US information warfare strategy against Iran. He pointed out that Trump is actually using three different narratives for “three different audiences,” including Trump’s Republican voters, Iranians, and the international audience.
Puste concluded by saying that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is undoubtedly an important step, but it cannot resolve the broader regional conflict.
