The fundamentals of the memory market remain robust, but industry dynamics have created confusion in the overall narrative:
1. The fundamental supply-demand imbalance in the memory market will persist for the next 2-3 years.
2. However, recent plans by Nvidia and AMD to launch low HBM-density accelerator variants and reduce the SCOMAMM memory capacity in Vera CPUs to alleviate DRAM supply shortages and cost pressures have disrupted the previous optimistic assumption that AI-driven memory demand lacked price elasticity. Their behavior of controlling BOM costs through capacity reduction is highly similar to past cycles.
3. Due to the confused narrative, the valuation of memory-related stocks may face upper limits. While a strong rebound is expected within the next 6 months after a significant correction of over 40%, it is unlikely to return to the previous highs reached in May 2026 in the short term. (The above views are from a JPMorgan report dated August 5th.)
