Markets expect US CPI, after June's -0.4% MoM, to rise 0.1% MoM in July. Core
CPI ex-food and energy is forecast +0.2% MoM and +2.5% YoY, the smallest YoY
gain since February. Following Friday's weak July nonfarm payrolls, slower
inflation could help ease Fed inflation concerns; three officials voted to raise
rates at the July 29 meeting. The report may show energy-price pressure has
cooled after surging in the months following late‑February US‑Iran hostilities;
retail gasoline fell to a near four‑month low in early July before rising above
$4/gal by month‑end. It may also show airfares declined as jet‑fuel costs
stabilized.
