Galaxy Securities says August is seeing a shift in the A-share market from
expectation-driven trading to reality testing, centered on three verification
lines: earnings, policy and external risk. Earnings: mid–late August is the
busiest window for A-share half-year report disclosures and should drive pricing
around H1 results versus expectations. Policy: the July Politburo meeting set H2
economic tasks; markets will move to test policy detail issuance and execution.
External risk: the Fed's policy path remains the primary global market focus.
Recommendation: maintain balanced positioning. Sector focus — secular/tech
winners: semiconductors and supply chain (memory chips; semiconductor equipment
& materials; advanced packaging), components, communications equipment, energy
storage/power infrastructure, humanoid robots, commercial aerospace. Defensive
core: coal, coal chemicals, financials, utilities, new energy.
Cyclicals/resources likely to recover: nonferrous metals, basic chemicals,
building materials, steel.
