Including 2026, the median maximum drawdown across 13 rounds is approximately 37%; the median time from peak to trough in 12 completed market cycles is approximately 9 months.
This indicates that the semiconductor sector exhibits high volatility and strong cyclical characteristics, and cannot solely prove a rapid rebound in this round. While the recovery was indeed relatively rapid in 2018, 2020, and 2024-2025, it took 14 months in 2021-2022, approximately 5 years after the financial crisis, and nearly 15 years after the dot-com bubble. As of August 10th, the SOX has rebounded to 11993.86 points, a rebound of approximately 14.8% from its low, but still about 18.2% lower than its June high, and has not yet recovered its previous losses.
Currently, the industry's revenue, profits, and AI demand are stronger than during the dot-com bubble period, but valuation, return on capital expenditure, competition, and supply expansion will still determine the speed of recovery. Historical statistics are for market research purposes only and do not constitute a guarantee of future performance.
