UBS warns El Niño risk could replace demand as the primary driver for
agricultural commodities. UBS cites forecasts that the current El Niño has an
81% chance of reaching strong or very-strong intensity by year-end and a 97%
probability of persisting into next year. If El Niño strengthens, key producing
regions could see more extreme rainfall, drought or temperature swings, raising
supply-side uncertainty. UBS flags potential upside for agricultural commodity
prices as weather reasserts dominance over the supply-demand balance.