Lianxin Bank chief economist Bill Adams said July CPI (Wednesday) and PPI
(Thursday) will likely carry more weight for the Fed's next decision than this
month's jobs report. Economists expect July CPI YoY to slow to 3.4% from 3.5% in
June (4.2% in May); weaker gasoline-price volatility is a key driver. Stable
oil-product prices should also slightly cool PPI, and core CPI may improve as
housing inflation moderates. If the prints match expectations, they would
support a Fed pause at the Sept. 16 meeting, though August jobs and CPI data —
due before the meeting — could still change that outlook.
