The chart, redrawn from EIA data, shows that Gulf liquid fuel production fell from approximately 25.9 million barrels per day before the war to approximately 13.9 million barrels per day, a decrease of about 12 million barrels per day. Kpler data shows that Middle Eastern Gulf crude oil and condensate production fell from approximately 27 million barrels per day before the war to approximately 15 million barrels per day in May, before recovering to 19.4 million barrels per day in July; however, with the renewed escalation of the conflict, Kpler predicts it will fall again to 16.6 million barrels per day in August.
Following prolonged well shutdowns, some oil fields face issues with reservoir pressure, equipment, power, and personnel recovery. Reuters, citing industry estimates, stated that if production recovers steadily, approximately 70% of the affected output could return within three months, 90% within six months, and the remaining approximately 1 million barrels per day could take longer.
However, this still indicates that maritime transport has not become secondary—disrupted exports and full onshore inventories were the main reasons for the previous large-scale well shutdowns, and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz still determines whether upstream production can continue to increase.
Kpler's latest baseline scenario has postponed the "full recovery" from September 2026 to early 2027.
