Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis said the RBA's decision to hold rates met
expectations but its guidance — "only prepared to raise rates if upside
inflation risks materialize", firmer than May's "if necessary" — has effectively
lowered market odds of further hikes. Westpac now expects rates to remain on
hold through mid‑next year, inflation citing and labor‑market data running
below the RBA's May forecasts. The bank describes the move as a "hawkish pause"
rather than a loosening; a small chance of further hikes this year remains,
conditional on energy-related cost pass-through or escalation in the Middle
East.
