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The Nikkei 225 index opened 17.26 points higher on Wednesday, August 12, a gain of 0.03%, at 66,987.48.

2026-08-12

The Nikkei 225 index opened 17.26 points higher on Wednesday, August 12, a gain of 0.03%, at 66,987.48.

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2026-08-12

South Korean stocks have recently seen significant valuation compression due to the deleveraging and high volatility in the semiconductor sector. A Bloomberg strategy article points out that the KOSPI's forward price-to-earnings ratio has fallen to a

South Korean stocks have recently seen significant valuation compression due to the deleveraging and high volatility in the semiconductor sector. A Bloomberg strategy article points out that the KOSPI's forward price-to-earnings ratio has fallen to around 5, only half of its long-term average. Looking at the earnings expectations implied by the valuation, the current price roughly reflects the market pricing in a 50% decline in future corporate earnings; in comparison, the largest decline in South Korean corporate earnings during the global financial crisis was approximately 45%. This extreme pricing is related to the highly concentrated structure of the South Korean stock market: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix together account for nearly half of the index weight, and technology stocks account for about 53%, thus significantly amplifying changes in semiconductor earnings expectations and leveraged funds. Recently, the KOSPI has fallen by about 33% from its June high, with Samsung and SK Hynix contributing the vast majority of the market capitalization loss. However, "cheap valuation" does not mean that earnings risks have disappeared. Currently, South Korea's leading memory chip manufacturers are still benefiting from AI chip demand and generating substantial cash, while the industry continues to expand capital expenditures. Therefore, the current valuation truly reflects the market's extremely pessimistic expectations regarding the sustainability of high semiconductor earnings: If the future decline is merely a normal cyclical downturn, rather than an earnings collapse approaching the level of a financial crisis, the current pricing may be excessively discounted; conversely, if the AI and storage cycles reverse rapidly, the low valuation itself cannot provide protection.
2026-08-12

1. The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges on August 11 was 2.32 trillion yuan, a decrease from the previous trading day, falling below the 20-day moving average (2.42 trillion yuan). 2. On August 11, the ratio of margi

1. The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges on August 11 was 2.32 trillion yuan, a decrease from the previous trading day, falling below the 20-day moving average (2.42 trillion yuan). 2. On August 11, the ratio of margin buying to A-share market capitalization, a measure of leverage, rebounded moderately to 10.17%. It has been fluctuating around 10% throughout the year, but the volatility has intensified significantly since May. -------- Note: 1. Trading volume reflects the views of major institutions, speculative funds, and retail investors on A-shares. Volume above the moving average indicates increased total trading volume and a more optimistic market sentiment, while volume below the moving average indicates decreased total trading volume and a cooling market sentiment. 2. Since 2015, A-share leverage levels have mostly remained between 6% and 10%. A leverage ratio exceeding 10% indicates high market activity, potentially approaching or in a bull market. A leverage ratio exceeding 15% indicates an overheated market risk, requiring caution.
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