CITIC Securities research note, citing CUSTOMS data: July rare-earth exports
4,223.5 t, down 29.54% YoY and 17.26% MoM, the lowest monthly level since March;
Jan–Jul cumulative exports 34,706.3 t, down 10% YoY. Average export price
$12.34/kg, up 103.14% YoY, as export mix shifts toward higher-value medium/heavy
rare-earths and overseas buyers accept pricier feedstock. Supply-side tightness
persists—no new incremental supply, separation plants running stably, and
previously idled producers have no restart plans—while downstream rigid demand
and positive long-term demand expectations support prices. Near-term outlook:
prices steady-to-firm.
