CITIC Securities said in a research note that July US CPI met expectations, core
inflation remained mild and second‑round effects were weak, easing inflation
risks. The firm judges US inflation is not highly sticky and expects headlines
CPI YoY to continue moderating through Q3, trough in September, rebound slightly
in Q4 and then fall rapidly by March next year. CITIC still forecasts the Fed
will keep policy unchanged this year and sees further room for derivatives to
reprice lower on rate‑hike expectations.
