Suren Thiru, chief economist at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in
England and Wales (ICAEW), said the 0.4% Q2 GDP rise was mainly driven by
temporary factors—pre‑Iran‑war stockpiling, unusually warm weather and World Cup
activity—rather than underlying momentum. He expects a clearer slowdown in Q3 as
rising inflation and energy costs squeeze household incomes, and said a Bank of
England rate increase in September remains unlikely given market expectations
that weaker activity will help rein in inflation.
