A The Economist/YouGov poll showed that as of August 9, Trump's smoothed net approval rating was -27 percentage points, but the latest poll from August 7-10 further worsened: only 33% of American adults approved of Trump's performance, while 62% disapproved, bringing the net approval rating down to -29, the lowest since YouGov covered both of Trump's terms. During the same period, his net approval rating for his first term was approximately -10, and Biden's was approximately -17.
More importantly, the losses have crossed traditional party lines. The net approval rating among independent voters has fallen to -53; among non-MAGA Republicans, only 51% approve and 47% disapprove, compared to 60% to 39% at the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, Democrats lead Republicans 46% to 40% in the popular vote, a 6-point advantage, their largest since February.
This means that Trump's low approval rating is beginning to carry over to the 2026 midterm elections, and is not just a polling issue.
However, this does not necessarily mean that the Republicans will lose Congress. A single poll has a margin of error of approximately ±3 percentage points, and factors such as gerrymandering, candidate quality, and voter turnout all influence the final seat count.
A more crucial signal is that Trump's political capital for a second term is significantly weaker than it was at the same time in 2017; if this trend continues, the market needs to increase its weighting on the probability of constrained fiscal, tariff, and regulatory policy implementation after the midterm elections.
