An 83% majority of 69 economists polled expect the ECB to raise the deposit
facility rate by 25bps to 2.50% in September; 80% expect the rate to remain at
2.50% through year‑end and 63% expect it to stay at or above 2.50% until Q3
2027. The share anticipating a September hike rose to 83% from 72% before July’s
meeting and 65% in June, reinforcing consensus that June’s increase could be
followed by another move. Nomura says sustained higher oil prices raise the risk
of second‑round inflation effects; while the ECB can wait to see those effects
it can also act preemptively, and a single small hike would look like a mere
tweak—making a follow‑up move likely. Given June’s obvious choice, Nomura judges
another rate rise highly likely.
