Goldman analyst Robert Kaplan said the Fed’s decision to hold in July was
“absolutely” correct and urged policymakers to stay open-minded through
September, arguing complex, offsetting inflation drivers make rigid forward
guidance counterproductive. He cited inflationary pressure from AI build-out,
tariffs, labor constraints and oil-price spikes, while AI applications are
working the other way and accelerating disinflation. Kaplan said he could remain
on hold if he sees meaningful improvement but wants to use the interval before
September to reassess rather than lock in a view. He urged Fed speakers to use
this month’s Jackson Hole symposium to briefly explain the July pause rather
than give a purely “philosophical” speech. Kaplan said he is more worried about
the long end of the US Treasury curve than the fed funds rate, attributing the
global rise in long yields to a structural supply–demand imbalance driven by
persistently loose fiscal deficits rather than Fed policy.
