Speculative investors increasingly price a RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA hike in
November as inflation remains above the bank’s 2%-3% target. Swap-market pricing
now implies roughly a 45% chance of a 25bps RBA hike in November, up from about
38% before Tuesday’s rate decision. Turnover in ASX-traded interbank cash rate
futures for November 2026 rose to its highest in over three months, signaling
increased speculative activity. The moves suggest markets doubt the tightening
cycle is over. Policymakers held rates steady this week; traders will watch
upcoming inflation and jobs data for clues on whether another hike will be
required this year.