Goldman Sachs derivatives trader Shawn Tuteja points out that US stock market sentiment has shifted significantly in the past two weeks. Previously, investors were primarily concerned with the Federal Reserve, long-term bond yields, geopolitical risks, and stock supply. Now, however, a "win-win" expectation is gradually forming regarding the September FOMC meeting: if the Fed adopts a dovish stance on rate hikes, the market believes it will help stabilize long-term yields; if it doesn't, strong earnings could continue to drive the rally to non-AI sectors.
Meanwhile, net client exposure is now at the 67th percentile over the past five years, and total exposure has risen to the 89th percentile. The S&P 500 call volume even reached a record high of 4 million contracts in a single day. Tuteja is not predicting a significant decline in the index, but rather believes the market has moved from its previous "fear wall" into a potential complacency zone: when both policy outcomes are interpreted as positive in advance, the market's buffer against risks such as unexpected hawkish moves and a resurgence in long-term bonds actually decreases.
