Goldman derivatives trader Shawn Tuteja says US equity sentiment reversed in two
weeks from fearing the Fed, higher long‑end yields, geopolitics and supply to a
'either outcome is bullish' view on the September FOMC. Market reads a
dovish‑leaning hike as stabilizing the long end, and no hike as confirmation
that strong earnings will broaden gains beyond AI. Client net exposures are at
the 67th percentile over the past five years and total exposures at the 89th;
SPX single‑day call volume hit a record ~4.0m contracts. Tuteja does not predict
a large index decline but warns that when both policy outcomes are pre‑priced as
positive, market cushioning against a hawkish surprise or renewed long‑yield
upside is reduced, raising complacency risk.
