The US July unadjusted CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, continuing the sticky cycle of remaining above the Federal Reserve's official 2% target since 2021. Statistics up to August 12, 2026, show a clear structural divergence in the upstream commodity sector. Core industrial and energy commodities such as heating oil (+92%), silver (+72%), gasoline (+52%), and copper (+47%) have surged over the past year, while some agricultural products and soft commodities (such as cocoa and lean pork) have recorded significant declines.
This structural surge in commodity prices is providing sustained support for overall imported inflation. Although the growth rate of some downstream consumer goods prices has slowed, the strong performance of the energy and related industrial chains has raised the overall costs of the manufacturing and household sectors, continuously hindering the path of inflation back to the 2% target. This second rebound in supply-side prices directly offsets the effects of monetary policy tightening.
Despite the unabated pressure of imported inflation, financial markets are still widely betting that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged at its September meeting. This discrepancy between market pricing and macroeconomic reality means that if the inflationary transmission effect of commodity prices fully manifests in the coming months, the Federal Reserve may once again fall into a passive policy state of "behind the curve".
