PBOC data on Aug. 14 showed July corporate new-loan weighted-average rate just
under 3.0%, about 20bps lower YoY. Experts note that in the current easing cycle
policy rates have been cut about 1.15 percentage points while corporate loan
averages have fallen roughly 2.6 percentage points, a larger move. Compared with
the U.S. during its zero-rate period (average loan rates ~4.3%), Chinese loan
rates are already low. Experts say future assessment of credit supply–demand
should rely mainly on interest-rate signals; with China’s M2/GDP ratio elevated
and credit supply able to meet real-economy financing needs, policy emphasis
should shift from credit scale to price — i.e., market-rate changes.
