A 60-day memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 expires this Sunday, yet
US and Iranian positions on control and passage through the Strait of Hormuz
remain deadlocked. Iran's military says no vessel may transit without
authorization and rejects US claims that shipping is "normal." The US has taken
a hard line: the defense secretary said it could sustain a maritime blockade of
Iran "indefinitely" and the treasury warned of "unprecedented" economic
measures. Kpler data show commodity ship transits ticked up on Thursday but
remain well below the pre-war daily average of about 130 vessels. Iran is not
negotiating directly with the US and is instead talking with Oman on new
maritime arrangements aimed at joint management; Pakistan's interior minister
flew to Tehran Tuesday to mediate. Analysts say an Iran-Oman agreement could
provide a route out of the stalemate and potentially open the door to
longer-term US-Iran ceasefire talks.
