Chicago Fed President GOOLSBEE said recent CPI prints are encouraging but
inflation remained elevated in May and June; he would need 3-4 months of
June-like momentum to be confident prices are returning to a 2% target. He
supports holding policy rates in July, called inflation the biggest concern and
said the economy and labor market are largely stable. He warned sustained retail
weakness would be worrying given consumption’s role in the US economy. He
flagged concern about a recent slowdown in productivity growth and said if
AI-driven gains prove unsustainable the narrative linking AI and monetary policy
would need reassessment. On reducing the number of policy meetings he has no
strong view and will wait for a working-group recommendation.
