CITIC Securities says mainland China advanced packaging is at a stage of rapidly
rising CoWoS penetration. Mainland foundries have not yet mass‑produced
mid‑process steps such as RDL, while OSATs have active layouts in 2.5D/3D/CoWoS.
OSATs that can first break through to mass production and expand capacity are
likely to establish a first‑mover advantage and capture larger industry share.
However, as the sector evolves, mainland foundries remain strategically
important: their front‑end technology and equipment capacity could enable them
to catch up with or even surpass OSATs in advanced packaging iterations, by
analogy with TSMC’s role.
