US Treasury Department data show foreign holdings of US Treasures fell to
$9.299 trillion in June from $9.371 trillion in May, though holdings are still
up 2.3% YoY. Japan remains the largest non-US holder but cut holdings 2.3% to
$1.116 trillion (well below the Nov 2021 peak of $1.325 trillion). Foreign
investors net sold about $72 billion of Treasures in June; Japan, China and
some custody centers were net sellers while Canada, Belgium and Switzerland were
net buyers. Foreigners have been net sellers of $56 billion over the past three
months but net buyers of $205 billion over the past 12 months; total US inflows
including equities were $173 billion in June. ING says with the 60-day US‑Iran
truce due to expire unresolved and ongoing heavy corporate issuance, the
Treasury market bias remains bearish and could drive yields higher. ING
attributes recent real-yield rises to a reversion toward
pre‑global‑financial‑crisis norms rather than market dislocation. In the euro
area, ECB balance-sheet runoff is tightening liquidity, reinforcing a structural
bearish case for German Bunds.
