JPMorgan Chase believes that market pricing in German fiscal stimulus has cooled significantly, but fiscal spending itself continues. Germany's €500 billion infrastructure fund remains unchanged.
The main issue is the time lag in project planning, approval, and implementation, meaning the policy effects have not yet been fully reflected in the economy and corporate profits.
In terms of fiscal strength, Germany's structural primary fiscal deficit is projected to widen from -0.6% of GDP in 2025 to -2.2% in 2026 and -2.6% in 2027, equivalent to a fiscal easing of approximately 2 percentage points of GDP over two years.
Core budget investment spending will also rise from €74.5 billion in 2024 to €128.7 billion in 2026. Meanwhile, domestic manufacturing orders in Germany have shown signs of recovery, indicating that the fiscal stimulus is beginning to transmit to the real economy.
Taking the US IIJA as an example, large-scale infrastructure projects often take several years from funding approval to actual spending, but once implemented, their impact on industries such as manufacturing, construction, power grids, and materials lasts even longer. Germany's fiscal stimulus is gradually moving from the policy expectation stage to the expenditure implementation stage, and the speed of subsequent implementation will be the key to the market's repricing.
