Ross Harrison, senior fellow at the U.S. Middle East Institute, says Iran’s
post-war foreign policy is unlikely to revert to total isolation or to rapidly
follow a Vietnam-style full integration. Economic realities make decades-long,
gradual change more likely than a near-term transformation. The more probable
outcome is a dual-track strategy: engaging diplomatically with Gulf Arab states
while keeping military coercion — missile threats and the option to close the
Strait of Hormuz — as leverage. The 2025–26 wars have weakened Iran and
unsettled neighbors, prompting some Gulf capitals to privately reassess
long-term reliance on U.S. security and consider hedging with Tehran.
Washington’s instinct to tighten containment by arming Israel and Gulf partners
could validate Tehran’s worst-case expectations and risk provoking further
attacks on Gulf states. Harrison argues policymakers should leave space for
Iranian regional diplomacy and evaluate whether such moves produce more
constructive behavior rather than judging them solely on whether they solve all
underlying issues.
