The API reported that U.S. crude oil production increased by 238,000 barrels per day in the week ending August 14, compared with 34,000 barrels per day in the previous week.

Market news: U.S. Forces Korea Commander Brunson visited the South Korean Ministry of National Defense to discuss scaling back the "Joint Firepower Exercise".

Today, the bond market saw a clear global convergence: Japan's 40-year yield rose to 4.205%, and the 10-year yield briefly reached 2.945%, a new high since 1996; Germany's 10-year yield rose to 3.2231%, a new high since 2011; the US 30-year yield also briefly touched 5.321%, the highest since 2007. The most direct catalyst was the renewed tensions following the expiration of the US-Iran ceasefire, with Brent crude oil rising to around $91, and the market reassessing medium- to long-term energy inflation risks. However, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September actually fell from 52% a week ago to about 35%, while long-term bond yields continued to reach new highs. This indicates that the current long-term sell-off cannot be simply explained by "central banks raising rates again," and the market is increasing the term premium required for holding long-term bonds. Japan and Europe do indeed face more direct pressure to raise rates—expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike in September are rising, and 83% of economists surveyed by Reuters expect the European Central Bank to raise rates again in September—but the common global problem is long-term inflation and bond supply. According to Reuters analysis, the deeper underlying factor is that global capital is becoming increasingly expensive. The US fiscal deficit remains around 6% of GDP, and AI giants have already issued nearly $220 billion in bonds this year. Germany has also moved away from past fiscal austerity measures, with new debt exceeding €180 billion by 2026 and a significant increase in defense and infrastructure financing. Meanwhile, central banks are no longer absorbing large amounts of long-term government bonds as they did during the QE era; investors are willing to accept the increasing duration supply only at higher yields.