According to the U.S. Treasury Department's June TIC data, foreign investors made only a net purchase of $6.8 billion in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds that month, the lowest level since February.
Private investors made a net purchase of $15.4 billion, while foreign official accounts made a net sale of $9.8 billion; official accounts also made a net sale of $35.6 billion in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, following a reduction of $61.1 billion in May.
JPMorgan Chase believes that as domestic government bond yields and valuations become more attractive, the incentive for overseas private funds to allocate to U.S. Treasuries may remain weak, and official demand also lacks a clear basis for a rebound in the short term. Therefore, JPMorgan Chase has lowered its 2026 forecast for foreign investor demand for U.S. Treasuries from $500 billion to $450 billion.
However, actual demand in the first half of the year was only $178 billion, so this forecast still faces downside risks. Weak overseas demand will make U.S. long-term bonds more reliant on higher yields to attract new buyers.
